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Subject: FEAR: Motivates IRAN: - Prof. Dror Zeevi - YETNEWS
From: torresD
Date: 1/22/2007 1:28:49 PM
In any discussion aimed at
looking into Iran's intentions,
it should be noted that throughout
the Islamic Republic's years of existence,
since 1979, it has not initiated a single war.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3354983,00.html
Iran motivated by fear
Tehran's pursuit of nuclear
capabilities stems from fear,
not hatred
Prof. Dror Zeevi Published: 01.21.07, 17:32
The Iranian regime is indeed
driven by messianic religious
ideology and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
is set on bringing about Israel's
destruction.
And yes,
Iran is seeking to achieve nuclear
capability and is trying to fool
the world.
And yes,
the Islamic republic supports
Hizbullah with weapons, know-how,
training and funds.
But however severe this may be,
it does not attest to his intent
to use nuclear weapons against Israel.
The Iranian need for nuclear
capability stems more from fear
than it does from hatred.
Hostile Israel has nuclear arms;
so do Sunni Pakistan and the US -
a superpower situated on the
Iranian border from the east
and west - as does Russia,
which borders Iran on the north.
Nuclear weapons would enable
Tehran to face these threats
as an equal and to conduct
itself as a regional superpower.
In any discussion aimed at
looking into Iran's intentions,
it should be noted that throughout
the Islamic Republic's years of existence,
since 1979, it has not initiated a single war.
Military Force
Iran to conduct missile test / Associated Press
State-run television reports Tehran
plans three days of military maneuvers,
including short-range missile tests,
beginning Sunday.
Meanwhile, Iranian president says
UN Security Council resolutions
against his country will not affect
its nuclear policies even if 10 more
of them are ratified
The war against Iraq was forced
upon it in 1980 by Saddam Hussein.
The Iranians didn't invade Afghanistan,
in spite of their fear of the radical
Taliban regime.
They didn't invade the south of Iraq,
and they didn't try to expand their border
to the north during the downfall of the
former USSR.
They were smart enough to resolve
their conflicts with the Persian
Gulf states by diplomatic means.
The Iranians have always displayed
political wisdom and a realistic
understanding of the limits of power.
Moreover, besides Israel and Turkey,
Iran is the closest to being a
democratic country in the Middle East.
Iran is not an absolute dictatorship,
and its rulers are also subjected
to the rule of law.
Iranian politics have a sophisticated
mechanism of balances and restraints
to curb the power of its leaders.
Iranian President Ahmadinejad
is not the state's sovereign.
He is obliged to adhere to
the rule of the supreme leader
(currently Ali Khamenei),
and he too is elected by the
Assembly of Experts,
a group of religious clerics
The Iranians appreciate
Israel's nuclear capability.
They are well aware that Israel
could deal them a severe blow if
attacked.
They also know all too well that the
US would not hesitate to strike heavily
at Iran if an Israeli response does not suffice.
Despite these arguments
(recently raised by Bernard Lewis)
regarding messianic extremism -
namely that they would be wiling
to sacrifice themselves in the process -
the Iranians have no intention of bringing
about the total destruction of Iran by their
own volition,
particularly at the dawn of a
new age and at the reappearance
of the Imam Mahdi.
The dark side
Fear, said Master Yoda in Star Wars,
leads to the dark side.
This is true when it concerns
Iran's need to develop nuclear
weapons,
and perhaps heaven forbid, use them.
This is no less true where Israel
is concerned in its need to boost
its security with a preventative
strike due to fear of an Iranian bomb.
Such a preventative strike can
only lead to a harsh, all-out war
in the region that would ruin the
world economy,
and Israel would likely suffer heavy losses.
Instead of striking a blow,
we would do well to seek ways
of calming Israeli and Iranian fears.
Statesmen are evaluated by their boldness.
Israel's nuclear ambiguity policy
has provided it with a protective
umbrella for close to 50 years.
Today,
in wake of the complex
challenge presented by Iran,
it is time to rethink the country's
nuclear arsenal,
and try to use its existence in
a way that would be most beneficial.
The Israeli government should make
a proposal to the international
community whereby it would be
willing to place its nuclear
program under international
inspection for 20 years,
at the end of which it
would reexamine the issue.
This would be subject to
all states in the region,
including Iran and Pakistan,
accepting the same rules of
supervision without limitation,
and halting development of any
nuclear weapons.
The objective of such a move
would not only be aimed at
reaching a compromise and
preventing Iran from developing
nuclear arms,
but also at accelerating processes
for initiating regime change.
It is common knowledge that the
rift between the regime and the
Iranian people is growing.
There is evidence that the regime
is using the excuse of nuclear
injustice in order to enlist
remaining popular support.
An Israeli statement regarding
ts readiness for a compromise on
this matter would prove to the
Iranian public that there's not
much in the regime's arguments
which in turn would accelerate
its demise.
Professor Zeevi is a lecturer at
the department of Middle Eastern
Studies at Ben Gurion University
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